One Big Wave

31.07.2020

I am sure you all raised a smile to Steve’s message last week, especially on the headline article from Reuters: ‘Government allows Brothels in Athens to Re-Open’.

On a more serious note this week, the articles I have read from a couple of reputable sources have led with:

Covid-19 is “most severe” global health emergency ever, says WHO director-general

Covid-19 is “easily the most severe” global health emergency the World Health Organization (WHO) has ever declared, said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus during a press briefing today. “Covid-19 has changed our world,” said the director-general, adding that the pandemic “has shown what humans are capable of – both positively and negatively.”

Pandemic is ‘one big wave’, WHO says

The World Health Organisation has warned against complacency about new coronavirus transmission in the northern hemisphere this summer, saying the virus did not behave like influenza that tended to follow seasonal trends.

“People are still thinking about seasons. What we all need to get our heads around is this is a new virus and… this one is behaving differently,” Margaret Harris told a virtual briefing in Geneva, urging vigilance in applying measures to slow transmission that is spreading via mass gatherings.

She also warned against thinking in terms of virus waves, saying: “It’s going to be one big wave. It’s going to go up and down a bit. “The best thing is to flatten it and turn it into just something lapping at your feet.”

Not so amusing, but all be it, it does demonstrate the severity of the situation we now find ourselves in. In our ‘big wave’ planning, as you know we adapted to holding all your annual review meetings via Zoom or by telephone depending on your preference. I know this is not quite the same as a face to face discussion, but it gives us the opportunity to ensure your financial planning goals continue to remain on track and enables us to deal with all of your immediate needs.

I am pleased to report, we are in the process of planning a move to a new office in Bristol. Adapting to the changing requirements of our team, we realised that Vertigo was not quite flexible enough for our needs and ultimately a little too large now that some of our team will continue to work from home. With more of our team either cycling, running, or walking into the office, modern facilities with multiple showers, changing areas, bike parking and on-site catering was required. The good news is the new office is only 5 minutes’ walk from Vertigo and offers great space for us with a wide variety of meeting room choices to cater for our clients who wish to meet us in Bristol. More details will follow as we near the planned moving date of the 5th September.

I hope you all continue to enjoy the UK summer. As always, thank you for your continued support and please stay safe and healthy.

Best wishes
David

David Buchan
Finance Director
David Buchan

Coming out of Lockdown

24.07.2020

Those of you with little better to do would have noticed that I missed my last slot 4 weeks ago and my Client Email was never completed in late June. I think the lockdown weeks had begun to blur and roll into each other and I obviously lost track of time (or had nothing interesting to say). However, this time round India gave me an ultimatum and a deadline for this week, and I pleased to say that by hitting the latter I avoided the former.

It has been interesting to see how people and businesses are all starting to emerge from Lockdown. I was reflecting on this whilst we grabbed an impromptu trip to the Lakes for a week, the day after the pubs could open. What a joy just to have a change of scene. Foraging for food at the end of the first day we saw that The Yew Tree in Coniston was a little stressed, shall we say, and not coping as well as The Crown Inn round the corner, which had a good system for engaging with their customers with a simple track and trace app and a welcome smile – not a face mask in sight. Being served up a Cumberland sausage and mash with a pint of Cumbria Way after a day on the fells – heaven.

All businesses, including us, are wrestling with ‘how to get back to work’ and ‘what does the new normal’ look like. I do not feed off other people’s woes but an article in Reuters did catch my eye recently and at first, I confess, I did laugh …. and then I could not stop. I paraphrase but the headline was “Government allows Brothels in Athens to Re-Open”. The thrust of the story lay in the trouble that the purveyors of said trade were having with the application of social distancing with their clients, and the problems said clients were having with track and trace, wishing to retain anonymity and not wishing to queue outside keeping a 2 metre spacing – I bet!

One ‘madam’, who owns three establishments, has already returned to profit as she was able to bail out the local football team through a low key sponsorship deal. The players are thrilled that the club has staved off insolvency and will be in a position to compete next season, but are at best ambivalent about wearing a new pink strip with ‘Villa Erotica’ stencilled across their shoulders – I kid you not.

Some businesses may well return to prosperity quickly, and of course, we wish the oldest industry of all our very best, but others will take a while longer, if at all, and there is no hiding the deep seated problems that the world economy faces. Quite what shape the recovery will be – ‘V’ shaped, ‘W’ shaped ‘L’ shaped or ‘Nike swoosh’ shape (whatever that means) or when it will occur remains unknown; however, the world economy will recover because it always does, and it’s our belief that we will look back in years to come on the COVID-19 era in the same way as we look back on the Banking Crisis of 2007/08.

However, there is no doubt there will be continued pain for many businesses and enterprises for some time to come. The contingency planning put in place by our Financial Director is coming into its own this year and that the financial planning process we apply to the development of your financial plan is equally applicable to Brunel i.e. having a rainy day fund to cope with shorter term ruin. By taking the same approach we can retain our fabulous team in full and our longer term plans remain on course.

Our planning and business is only as good as the support that you give us though, and again from me and the Team I wish to take the opportunity to thank you for your continued support and good humour through this crisis.

Steve Brady
Director
Steve Brady

A Sustainable Future

17.7.2020

I hope everyone is keeping safe and well and managing to remain positive. I for one am very much looking forward to taking some time out with the family next week in Cornwall. The past few months have been extremely challenging for everyone and it is easy to forget that we need a break to re-charge the batteries. If you do manage to get away, I hope you have a great time.

In this update, I wanted to share some further developments we are working on for our clients.

One of our core values is that we Care. As a business, we care – about all of us, about how we work together and our environment.

Brunel believes Corporate Social Responsibility is about living the values and principles that govern the way we operate as an organisation and behave as individuals.

Ensuring we sustain safe operations, have a positive and supportive impact on our employees, the communities we work in and the wider environment, and ensuring we continually strive to build the trust and respect of our clients. We recognise the impacts that we make on society, the economy and the planet, and we seek to make a positive difference in the places where we operate.

Many of you will have seen some of the fantastic work our team has done for charity and making a difference in our local community has always been a big part of what we are about. We now have a dedicated team looking at all of this to ensure our impact remains totally positive across all areas of the business and we achieve the high standards we have set ourselves.

We know from our conversations with you, our clients that some of these matters are really important to you too.

One of the biggest themes we are seeing within the investment world is that of ‘sustainable’ investing. You might have seen it referred to as Ethical, SRI (Socially Responsible Investing), ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) or ‘Impact’ investing but it all fundamentally means the same thing – making a positive impact on our world and the creatures (including humans) in it, through the investments you choose.

I don’t think any reasonable person would argue that this is a good aim.

In the past my only reservations have been what it implies about ‘ordinary’ investing or indeed who’s definition of Ethical, Responsible or Impact we are referring to.

Historically, Ethical investing meant avoiding certain areas you disagree with (negative screening to use the technical term). In recent years people have seen that positively engaging with companies to encourage change has garnered much better results. The reality is that most big investment companies, by their sheer size, command a seat at the table of most big firms to pressure for positive change. Indeed Vanguard, the world’s biggest fund manager, actively engage with boards to deliver good governance and responsible management. But is that enough?

Ethical investing has also previously been seen as a nice idea but one that severely restricts investment choice and gives up financial growth prospects. Time has however shown that neither is true. As demand has increased the range of options has ballooned but also ‘sustainable’ industries are often those in the fastest growth areas and with the greatest long-term potential. A case in point is the impending climate crisis – companies focusing on renewable energy sources certainly have a long and bright future (assuming they get the right technology and source of energy).

While we each may have slightly different definitions of what ethical means to us there is also likely to be a strong overlap of the things that we want to see in the future. The UN have come up with a set of Sustainable Development Goals which many of us will agree are taking us in the right direction:

At IronBright we have decided that the time is right to introduce focused sustainable portfolios as an option for our clients. If you want to find out more, please get in touch with your financial planner.

With best wishes

Damien Rylett
CEO

With thanks to Dan Hiles, Chair of our Investment Committee for his contribution.

 

Lockdown Diaries – Where did the first half of the year go?

10.07.2020

I won’t bore you with a week by week account of events for the last 15 weeks since the commencement of lockdown back on 23rd March other than to say my PopMaster prowess has not really improved with Mrs Hill having taken victory on 75 occasions out of a possible 76!

However, I have had time to reflect on the work my colleagues and I undertake on behalf of our clients with a view to providing confidence in your financial future. This possibly can be best illustrated in the “Advice Tree”:

You will see I have broken down our work into three branches, with several individual elements on each branch:

  • Confidence
  • Your Goals
  • Your Money

In this post, I would like to concentrate on the “Confidence” branch and will pick up the Goals and Money branches in future articles.

Our experience – in the team we have many years of experience in dealing with the ups and downs of financial life. By way of example, we can help with a business sale, planning a legacy or receiving an inheritance. It is always good to be able to talk to someone who has been through it before- that’s what we are here for.

Achieving your goals – we can help you work out and achieve your financial goals in a relaxed but structured way; We will help you to understand risks and opportunities, to build a clear plan for your future. Really, our job is to give you confidence in the future.

Making the complex simple – The simpler we can make your plan the more likely you are able to stick to it. We also help to reduce your paperwork making sure you keep the important documents and destroy the spam!

Building trust in your financial future – we can often spot opportunities and by fully understanding your goals we can alert you to opportunities. We are your eyes and ears in the ever-changing world of tax and legal aspects of financial life. Our aim is to keep you on track over the months and years ahead. We achieve this by being available to you at any time throughout the course of the year and more formally at our Annual Planning Meetings.

I hope you find the “Advice Tree” helpful and informative. Your dedicated Financial Planner can always elaborate on any of the elements contained within the Advice Tree.

I’m off to catch up with the highlights of the first day’s play at the test match. Yes, cricket is back and so is the rain!

I hope you and your family continue to stay safe.

Peter Hill
Director

Peter Hill

Getting the right (re-)balance

03.07.2020

Call me old-fashioned but every now and then I like to see a bit of evidence that investment disciplines do actually work.

One discipline which has been long proven is that of re-balancing portfolios. This is the process of bringing a portfolio back to its original allocations on a regular basis. This could be quarterly, half-yearly or once a year. In the long term it makes little difference as long as you actually do it.

When we created IronBright, we took the decision to re-balance all of our client portfolios half-yearly and have stuck to this discipline ever since.

The primary goal of re-balancing is to maintain the risk and return characteristics of any given portfolio over time. In simple terms: if you buy a portfolio of 2 funds; in equal weightings; with one representing stockmarket (growth) assets and the other fixed interest (defensive) assets and do nothing the likely long term performance of the stockmarket component will mean that a 50/50 investment will start to drift to 60/40, 70/30 or beyond.

This leaves a client in a totally different asset allocation (and hence risk and return trade off) than they are comfortable with. The result of this is that, if the stockmarket takes a temporary dive as it did in March this year then the investor suffers significantly more volatility than they were originally comfortable with.

Regular re-balancing makes sure the weightings never drift too far apart and the portfolio continues to act as expected over time.

The nature of re-balancing also means you are, by definition, selling things that have done well and buying those that have done less well. This is selling high and buying low – the nirvana of investing!

Long-term this can also serve to enhance the returns of a portfolio and our most recent rebalance at the end of March serves to illustrate this point. Due to the significant market movements in March this is an exaggerated version of what we usually see but hopefully will demonstrate the principle.

For ease, I have chosen our IronBright 50 (Passive) portfolio as it is evenly weighted between ‘growth’ and ‘defensive’ (or Equity and Fixed Interest) funds.

Between the previous re-balance in November 2019 and the latest one at the end of March the Fixed Interest part of the portfolio actually increased by 1% while the Equity component dropped by 20%. This led to the portfolio becoming overweight in Fixed Interest funds. The re-balance prompted the ‘profit’ from this element to be realised and reinvested into the Equity funds which were temporarily suppressed. From the end of March to now the Fixed Interest element has grown by just 6% while the equity funds have grown by 14%.

Given the risk and reward characteristics of the IronBright 50 portfolio, a rebalance like this will have served to enhance the returns for our clients over and above a portfolio that was not rebalanced.

It is important to note that, like all areas of investing, discipline is key. That is why we have always rebalanced and will continue to do so on a regular basis.

Dan Hiles
Financial Planning Manager

Brunel Capital Partners is a sister company of Pilgrim Financial Planning